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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Jan 14 - 18, 2009 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 16 - 22, 2009 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 08, 2009 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST THU JAN 08 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 18 2009
TODAYS GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH CENTERED EAST OF HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS WHILE A RIDGE IS PROGGED
OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
FEATURES. YESTERDAYS 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS-BASED PROGS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN ITS PREVIOUS PROG. TODAYS BLEND
CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE PNA INDEX
WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH
DAY 10, AND TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN
NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 7, REMAIN NEAR ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE BY DAY 10, AND BECOME POSITIVE BY DAY 14. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS AND MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW SUGGESTS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WESTERN HALF. THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE LEADS TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY
FLOW. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE. ANOMALOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA
EXCEPT THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY
8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELD SOLUTIONS AND
FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES, THE KLEIN,
NEURAL NET AND ANALOG TEMPERATURE SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, AND
TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 53N 127W AND ON A
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 45N 75W.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST,
THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE
NEURAL NETWORK AND THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE MANUAL BLEND,
INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, AND
TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 53N 127W AND ON A
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 45N 75W.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 16 - 22 2009
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGS INDICATE A SLOW PROGRESSION AND
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLES. A TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF. SOME TROUGH ENERGY IS STILL PROGGED TO HANG BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
ESPECIALLY BY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. A RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALASKA WHILE A TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THE OPERATIONAL
0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION
FEATURES. IN ADDITION, THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN OVER THE WEST AS JET STREAM ENERGY
FROM THE PACIFIC STARTS TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS EVOLUTION IS
MOST PROMINENT IN THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WESTERN ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS, AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND GULF OF ALASKA.
THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON: KLEIN, NEURAL NETWORK, AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE MANUAL BLEND, THE AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES,
THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER AT 57N 118W.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON: NEURAL NETWORK AND ANALOG
PRECIPITATION SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST, THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 57N 118W.
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19611220 - 19611226 - 19741220 - 19750107 - 19701231
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19611220 - 19611225 - 19651222 - 19750105 - 19760112
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 18 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B B RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 16 - 22 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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