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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR JULY 2009
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND POSITIVE 0.5 TO 1.0 DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF MAY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 8.40 INCHES (48 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.89 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.43 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 61.81 INCHES (115 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR JULY 2009. NCEP MODELS ALSO PREDICT EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL-AND BELOW FOR TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR JULY 2009.
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| TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.5 | 9.4 | 11.2 | | KAHULUI | EC | 78.9 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | | HONOLULU | EC | 80.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | | LIHUE | EC | 78.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR JAS 2009 TO JAS 2010 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE PATTERNS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLY STAGES OF A DEVELOPING EL NINO. SST INCREASED WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES ALSO CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE AREA OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEAR THERMOCLINE DEPTH. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTED NEAR THE DATE LINE. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION EXPANDED WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM THE DATE LINE TO INDONESIA. MOST MODELS PREDICT THE ONSET OF EL NINO DURING JUNE - AUGUST 2009. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS - RECENT TRENDS - AND THE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO EL NINO CONDITIONS DURING JUNE - AUGUST 2009. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO SON 2009, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO JFM 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM DJF TO JFM 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE. |
| HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JAS 2009 | A40 | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 | | ASO 2009 | A40 | 76.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 | | SON 2009 | A40 | 75.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 | | OND 2009 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 72.0 | 0.4 | | B40 | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 71.8 | 0.4 | | B40 | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 | | FMA 2010 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JAS 2009 | A40 | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | ASO 2009 | A40 | 78.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | SON 2009 | A40 | 77.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | | OND 2009 | EC | 75.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 72.5 | 0.5 | | B40 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.5 | | B40 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | | FMA 2010 | EC | 73.2 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 74.4 | 0.6 | | EC | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 78.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JAS 2009 | A40 | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | | ASO 2009 | A40 | 81.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | | SON 2009 | A40 | 79.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | | OND 2009 | EC | 77.3 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 73.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 73.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | | FMA 2010 | EC | 74.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 76.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 80.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JAS 2009 | A40 | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | | ASO 2009 | A40 | 79.0 | 0.3 | | EC | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | | SON 2009 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | | OND 2009 | EC | 75.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.4 | | B40 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.4 | | B40 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | | FMA 2010 | EC | 73.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 74.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 78.8 | 0.3 | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 16, 2009
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